|
JCC’s Center for Community Studies Releases Results
of 24th Annual North Country Survey of the Community
Published: February 02, 2024
at 08:15 a.m.
By: Press Release from Center for Community Studies
at Jefferson Community College
JCC’s Center for Community Studies Releases Results
of 24th Annual North Country Survey of the Community
Full survey
report is attached (PDF)
The Center for
Community Studies (CCS) at Jefferson Community College (JCC) released the
findings of its 24th Annual
North Country Survey of the Community on Thursday.
The survey is an
annual inventory of the attitudes and opinions of a representative sample
of North Country adult residents and has been completed by the Center each
year in Jefferson County since 2000. The survey expanded to include Lewis
County annually in 2007, and further expanded to include St. Lawrence
County in 2015. The primary goal of the survey is to collect data
regarding quality-of-life issues of importance to local citizens, and as a
result this study provides an annual “snapshot” of life in the North
Country. Additionally, analysis of the 24th Annual
Survey data provides an information-rich “motion-picture” of changes in the
lives of residents over the past two-plus decades when trends are
investigated via comparing with earlier-year results. The longitudinal
trended data included in this study summarizes results of over 21,000
interviews that have been completed in a total of 50 county-specific
surveys of the community in the three counties since 2000.
In 2023 a
mixed-mode sampling design has been employed in this study to complete a
total of 1,171 interviews of adult residents of the tri-county region, with
433 Jefferson County residents, 349 Lewis County residents, and 389 St.
Lawrence County residents. Working under the supervision of the CCS
research staff in both a physical call center in Watertown and a virtual
remote call center, JCC statistics students completed 561 live interviews
via telephone on both the landline and cellular phones of North Country
adult residents on the evenings of October 23-30, 2023. An additional
532 surveys were completed online by North Country adult residents after
random email invitations to participate, and finally, 78 intercept surveys
were completed at Fort Drum to assist in attaining accurate representation
of the military-affiliated subpopulation in the sample collected in this
study. The result of this sampling of 1,171 North Country residents is an
approximate margin of error of ±3.2% after weighting
sample survey results toward North Country population characteristics.
Highlighted
Findings from the 2023 Study:
Summary −
what is changing, or most surprising, among the annual 21 community
indicators studied:
1. Which
indicators in 2023 differ most from their long-term average results?
The most noteworthy observation from 2023 survey results is the
satisfaction with availability of good jobs is well higher than average,
while the results for each of the following indicators are well below
long-term averages (LTA):
· Availability
of behavioral health services (2%+ below LTA in each county)
· Quality
of K-12 education (4%+ below LTA in each county)
· Health
care access (4%+ below LTA in each county)
· The
overall quality of life in the area (6%+ below LTA in each county)
· Policing
and crime control (8%+ below LTA in each county)
· Healthcare
quality (below LTA 7%+ in each county)
· Availability
of childcare (11%+ below LTA in each county)
· Availability
of care for the elderly (9%+ below LTA in each county)
· Availability
of housing (13%+ below LTA in each county)
In summary, by these metrics, availability of housing is the community
characteristic that currently shows the greatest decrease in satisfaction
among North Country residents among the studied indicators, closely
followed by availability of care for the elderly, and availability of
childcare.
2. Perceived
Quality of Life in One’s Community – Comparison of the three North
Country Counties – Twenty community characteristics are
studied each year in the three North Country counties (with a 21st included
in only Jefferson County, Downtown of Watertown). These characteristics, or
indicators, have been developed over the past two-plus decades and are
intended to represent all components of what comprise a community – jobs,
government, education, healthcare, housing, recreation, etc. It is
difficult not to recognize that in 2023 there are stark differences present
when comparing the three represented counties. In summary, quite
unanimously, Lewis County residents show the most satisfaction with the characteristics
of their communities, followed by Jefferson County residents, and in
comparison, residents of St. Lawrence County express by far the most
dissatisfaction with the characteristics of their county. To illustrate,
Lewis County residents reported the highest rates of “Excellent or Good”
for 16 of the 20 studied community indicators. The only exceptions
were that in Jefferson County the highest rates of “Excellent or Good” were
found for each of shopping opportunities and cost
of energy, and in St. Lawrence County the highest rates of “Excellent
or Good” were found for each of real estate taxes and access
to higher education. Furthermore, St. Lawrence County residents
reported the highest rates of “Poor” for 17 of the 20 studied community
indicators.
Highlights for
individual community characteristics – among these items that are tracked
each year, which are showing most notable change?
3. Pocketbook
Issues – Concern with Inflation and the Cost of Living – North Country
residents in 2023 continued to express that inflation is problematic. When
asked the open-ended question, “What do you think is the single largest
issue that is facing residents of the North Country right now?”, inflation
was by far the most common free response, provided by 28% of
participants. Concern with inflation is significantly higher among
Lewis County residents when compared to the other two studied counties, and
among those North Country residents who describe themselves as conservative
in their political beliefs.
4. Personal
Financial Situation – Some Recovery Evident Between 2022 and
2023 – Compared to results found in 2017-2018, there is strong evidence
that North Country residents do not currently feel positive about their
personal financial situations. In 2018, only 13% of participants reported
that their financial situation had “gotten worse” in the
preceding twelve months. In 2023 this “gotten worse” rate
in the region is triple that which was found in 2018, the 2023 rate is 39%.
However. this 39% “gotten worse” in 2023 among North
Country adults is a significant decrease from the all-time high of over 51%
that was found one year ago in 2022. The question that will be interesting
to address next year in 2024 is whether or not
this 2023 short-term improvement in personal financial situations will
continue trending in that direction. While only one in nine North
Country participants in 2023 (11%) indicate that their personal financial
situation has “gotten better”, this rate more than doubles to
23% among those who are from households with annual income of $100,000 or
more.
5. Good
Job Availability Locally Continues to be Perceived More Positively
than Ever – Availability of good jobs has been studied
continuously for 24 years and for the past three years (2021-2023) the rate
of assessing as “Excellent or Good” has been the highest ever found, with
one exception – St. Lawrence County. In each of Jefferson and Lewis
Counties, participants in 2023 continue to rate job availability very
positively (32% and 35%, respectively), but not in St. Lawrence
County. The “Excellent or Good” rate in St. Lawrence County plummeted
from 27% in 2022 to only 16% in 2023. Interestingly, females and those from
high income households in the North Country are least likely to feel that
the availability of good jobs locally is “Excellent or Good”.
6. Quality
of K-12 Education, Residents are Returning to Pre-pandemic Levels of
Satisfaction – Each year this education-related question has been
included in the study, Lewis County residents have responded with the most
positive assessments of the quality of their K-12 schools when compared to
the other two studied counties, and without question, Lewis County adults
are very proud of their schools (in 2023, 76% rate as “Excellent or Good”).
In each of the three studied counties the rates of assessing local K-12
schools as “Excellent or Good” decreased continuously between 2017-2022
(Jefferson from 67% to 52%, Lewis from 80% to 65%, and St. Lawrence from
72% to a lowest 49%). However, between 2022-2023 the rates in each of Lewis
and St. Lawrence have increased, returning to pre-pandemic levels (Lewis
between 2022-2023 increased from 65% back up to 76%, and St. Lawrence
increased from 49% back up to 57%) while Jefferson remained quite stable.
Along with the previously noted very positive result in Lewis County, other
studied subgroups that have particularly positive assessments of their K-12
schools include: those from households with
$100,000 annual income or more (64% rate as “Excellent or Good”), those age
60-69 (64%), and those with at least a 4-year degree level of educational
attainment (62%).
7. Policing
and Crime Control Satisfaction is Low Compared to Long-term
Averages – Satisfaction with policing and crime control has
decreased significantly in all three studied counties between 2020 and
2023, with rates of “Excellent or Good” in each of the counties well below
the long-term averages for this community indicator. The Jefferson County
2023 rate is 46%, while the long-term 2000-2023 average has been 62%.
The Lewis County 2023 rate is 62%, while the long-term 2007-2023 average in
the county has been 69%. The St. Lawrence County 2023 rate is 44%, while
the long-term 2015-2023 average in the county has been 56%. Note that in
2023 Lewis County residents remain, as has been the case in every year of
study, more positive regarding policing and crime control than residents of
the two neighboring counties. Older residents, the highly educated, and
those with conservative political ideologies are the subgroups that report
the greatest satisfaction with policing and crime control in the
region.
8. Availability
of Housing – Satisfaction with the availability of housing in
the North Country has decreased significantly in all three studied counties
between 2015 (when 55%-65% rated as “Excellent or Good”) and the most
recent two years of study (2022-2023, when satisfaction rates have halved
to approximately 30%). In this past year there is slight improvement in
Lewis County (from 25% to 36%), however, a continued downward trend of more
dissatisfaction with availability of housing has been found in both
Jefferson and St. Lawrence Counties between 2022 and 2023. The more highly
educated, and those from higher income households are most satisfied with
the availability of housing, along with those who self-report as Black,
Indigenous, People of Color, or non-White.
9. Availability
of Childcare – Satisfaction with the availability of childcare in
the North Country has been at an all-time low for the past two years
(2022-2023), however, in this past year there is slight improvement in each
of Jefferson and Lewis Counties, with a continued downward trend of more
dissatisfaction found in St. Lawrence County. Only about one-in-seven
North Country residents (15%) currently rate the availability of childcare
as “Excellent or Good”. When first studied in 2015-2016 the
satisfaction rates were approximately 40% in the counties, which is almost
triple the current rate. Interestingly, it is those adults of the age most
likely to need childcare services (age 18-39) who are most satisfied with
the availability (although their “Excellent or Good” rate is still a
not-that-impressive, but relatively high, 20%). Most notably, the
subgroup who by far reports the highest level of satisfaction with
availability of childcare is those individuals who live in a household that
includes active military stationed at Fort Drum (36% of participants who
have active military stationed at Fort Drum in the household rate
availability of childcare as “Excellent or Good”).
10. What
direction are things heading – In our nation? – North Country
residents in 2023 have expressed clear and increasing concern that, in
general, things in the United States are heading in the
wrong direction. In 2023 only 14% of participants believe that things
in the country are headed in the right direction, while
73% believe that things in the country are headed in the
wrong direction (was 68% in 2022), with residents of Lewis County clearly
the most likely to feel that things are headed in the wrong direction (over
80% in Lewis County express this sentiment in 2023). Attitude regarding the
direction that things are going in our country is very
strongly correlated with political ideology – only 7% of self-described
conservatives indicate that they believe that things are going in the right
direction, while 86% of conservatives respond with wrong direction (over a
12:1 ratio of wrong-to-right).
11. What
direction are things heading – In New York State? – North Country
residents in 2023 have expressed large concern that, in general, things
in New York State are heading in the wrong direction. In
2023 only 18% of participants believe that things in our state are
headed in the right direction, while 67% believe that things in our state are
headed in the wrong direction, with residents of Lewis County clearly the
most likely to feel that things are headed in the wrong direction (almost
80% in Lewis County express this sentiment). Attitude regarding the
direction that things are going in our state is very
strongly correlated with political ideology – only 4% of self-described
conservatives indicate that they believe that things are going in the right
direction, while 86% of conservatives respond with wrong direction (over a
20:1 ratio of wrong-to-right).
12. What
direction are things heading – In the North Country? – North Country
residents are more optimistic, although not tremendously positive, with how
things are going locally as 34% of participants in 2023
believe that things in their county are headed in the
right direction (was 33% in 2022), while 40% in 2023 believe that things in
their county are headed in the wrong direction. Residents
of Lewis County are the most likely to feel that things are headed in the
right direction in their county (37% in Lewis County express this
sentiment). Results have remained relatively stable over the past
four years of surveying (rates of “right direction” by county in 2020 were:
50% in Lewis, 42% in Jefferson, and 35% in St. Lawrence, and in 2023
respectively the rates are 37%, 34%, and 33%). Attitude regarding the
direction that things are going in our local counties is not as
strongly correlated with political ideology – in 2023, 34% of
self-described conservatives in the region indicate that they believe that
things are going in the right direction in their county, while 44% of
liberals respond with right direction (nowhere near the differences that
emerged when these two groups evaluated the state or country).
13. Political
Ideology – Residents continue to be most likely to report that
they are moderate or middle-of-the-road, not as Liberal or as Conservative – In all
three counties it has consistently been the case over the past 24 years of
North Country public opinion polling that when asked one’s political
beliefs or ideology, “middle-of-the-road” is the most common response.
Regardless of the overwhelming notion in our current society of political
polarization, it remains in 2023 that North Country adult residents
self-report as: 39% middle-of-the-road; 33% conservative; 14% liberal; and
14% not sure. (2022 results were: 44% middle-of-the-road; 32% conservative;
14% liberal; and 10% not sure).
Revisiting
several North Country resident attitudes and behaviors measured in the
past, but not recently measured:
14. Severity
of Community Health and Safety Issues – Crime, Poverty, Mental
Health, Alcohol Abuse, Opiates Abuse, Prescriptive Drugs Abuse – Between
2016 and 2018 the Center for Community Studies included a
series of survey questions regarding six separate community issues.
The goal of these questions was to measure the perceived severity
of each issue within North Country communities (rather than the
frequency/prevalence, suggested solutions, quality of community response,
or any number of other attributes that could be studied regarding these six
community issues). In 2023, perceived severity questions for these six
community issues were reintroduced into the annual survey study. Below is a table that includes a summary of the
changes over time that have been found for each issue, and at times, a
county-comparison of results.
In summary, in
2023, adults in Lewis County far less commonly perceive community issues as
"major" compared to residents of Jefferson or St. Lawrence
Counties. Additionally, regarding poverty and crime, St. Lawrence County
residents more frequently rate the severity of these problems as
"major" than those in Jefferson County. Although Heroin, or Other
Opiate, Abuse remains the most commonly perceived
issue as “major” in the North Country (54% in 2023), a clear trend found
over the past six years in the North Country is a significant decrease in
evaluating Heroin, or Other Opiate, Abuse as a “major” community issue
(from 73% in 2017 to the current 54%). Similar decreases in the perceived
severity of poverty, crime, prescriptive drug abuse, and alcohol abuse were
found between 2017/2018 and 2023. However, the clear exception in
perception of community issues found in this study is that the reverse
trend has transpired in the North Country between 2016 and 2023 when
assessing mental health – only 24% of participants in 2016 rated Mental
Health as a “major” issue, while that rate has increased to
38% in 2023.
15. Women’s
Reproductive Rights – There is overwhelming evidence that a
large majority of adult residents in the North Country support women’s
reproductive rights. Participants were provided the following two
statements, and asked which of the two choices they most agree with:
Statement A: "Choosing abortion is a woman's right, and
society should protect that right", and Statement B: "Abortion
is morally wrong, and society should prohibit it". By more
than a three-to-one ratio, residents are more likely to agree with
Statement A rather than Statement B. More than
three-fourths (76%) of North Country residents agree with the pro-choice
Statement A, while less than one-fourth (24%) agree with the pro-life
Statement B. This sentiment
resonates in each of the three individual counties studied in 2023 (the A
vs. B rates): Jefferson: 78% vs. 22%; Lewis: 66% vs. 34%; and St.
Lawrence: 76% vs. 24%). Moreover, the most recent-past
inclusion of this survey question in this annual study was in 2020, before
the 2023 overturn of the Row v. Wade decision by the United States Supreme
Court. The 2023 results have shown an increase in support for Statement A
(pro-choice) in each of the three counties since 2020 – Jefferson from 65%
to 78%, Lewis from 59% to 66%, and St. Lawrence from 72% to 76%. Finally,
throughout the North Country support for women’s reproductive rights is
quite ubiquitous. Among the many subgroups studied – by county, by
age, by gender, by education, by military affiliation, by race/ethnicity,
and by political ideology – every subgroup has a large majority within
their participants who believe that choosing abortion is a woman’s right,
with 66% or more agreeing with Statement A in every studied subgroup,
except one subgroup. The group of conservatives show less support for
women’s reproductive rights, however, even among this conservative subgroup
a majority (56%) agree with Statement A.
16. Cross-border
Travel – For the first 13 years that this annual study was
completed in Jefferson County (2000-2012), the question “How many
times have you crossed the border to eastern Ontario during the past year?” was
tracked. In 2000-2001 two-in-three (60%-70%) of Jefferson County residents
crossed the border at least once per year to eastern Ontario. This
rate post-9/11 continuously decreased between 2001-2012 from 67% down to
only 21% in 2012. Over a decade later, in 2023, the rate of crossing the
border remains similar with 25% of Jefferson County residents crossing the
border at least once (and similarly, 29% in St. Lawrence County, with only
9% in Lewis County). Education level and annual household income are the
two factors that are most strongly associated with cross-border travel –
among those with at least a 4-year degree, 42% have crossed the border at
least once in the past year, and the rate increases to 45% among those from
households with annual incomes of at least $100,000.
17. A
Good Place to Grow Old – In 2010 and 2011, the
question “Do you believe that your county is a good place to grow
old?” was included in this annual study in each of Jefferson and
Lewis Counties, and at that time approximately 40% of participants
responded with “very good”. The question has been reintroduced into this
2023 study and a tremendous change has been observed in that the “very
good” rate has decreased from 40% to only 16% in the North Country. Not
surprisingly, the subgroup that is most likely to respond that their county
is a very good place to grow old is those who are already 70 years of age
or older. Notably, Lewis County residents, and lower education level
residents, are groups with more positive assessments of their county being
a very good place to grow old.
18. Fort
Drum Support – In 2003, in Jefferson County, for the first
time, a survey question about the perception that the presence of the 10th
Mountain Division at Fort Drum since 1985 has improved the overall quality
of life of North Country citizens was included in this annual study.
Between 2003-2017 in Jefferson County the typical result was that
approximately 75% of participants agreed with this perceived positive
quality-of-life impact. Similarly, between 2007-2017 in Lewis County the
typical result was that approximately 70% of participants agreed with this
perceived positive quality-of-life impact. In 2023 this question was
reintroduced and employed in all three counties and results remain very
positive with 74% agreeing in Lewis County, 71% in Jefferson County, and
60% in St. Lawrence County. Note that the primary reason for this lower
agreement rate in St. Lawrence County is due to a larger “no opinion”
response rate, which is likely associated with the further distance from
the military installation. Notably, the subgroup with the highest rate of
agreement is the older residents (79% among those age 70+), and Fort Drum
impact opinion is independent of political ideology (71% of conservatives
agree, while similarly, 68% of liberals agree).
The entire final
report of study findings, including the detailed statistical analysis and
summary of results will be made available on the College’s website, www.sunyjefferson.edu/ccs,
on Thursday, February 1, 2024 at 5:30 p.m.
Annual surveys of
the North Country communities are sponsored by Jefferson Community College,
Car-Freshner, Northern New York Community
Foundation, Development Authority of the North Country, and the Lewis
County Board of Legislature who all provide financial support to assist in
the funding of these projects.
|
