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Incredibly Powerful Storm Set to Impact Region
Heading Into and Through the Christmas Weekend
Published: December 20, 2022
at 03:00 p.m.
By: Nick Altmire
The National
Weather Service office in Buffalo, which provides forecasts for Lewis
County and the Eastern Lake Ontario region, is warning that an incredibly
powerful storm system is set to impact the region in the days leading up to
and through the Christmas weekend.
“An extremely
amplified longwave pattern during this period will spawn one of the most
intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West
and Great Lakes region,” National Weather Service forecasters said in their
detailed forecast discussion this afternoon. “This
system will likely end up setting low pressure
records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to
generate at least storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes.”
The forecasters
went on to describe the storm as a “once in a generation type of event.”
A High Wind Watch has already been
issued for the region for 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM Friday, with sustained Southeast winds of 40 to 50 mph with
gusts up to 65 mph possible. The strongest winds Thursday night will occur
in downslope areas to the north of the Tug Hill and down the Black River
Valley, according to the National Weather Service, with more widespread
strong winds forecast for Friday. We expect more watches and warnings to be
issued in the next day or so.
Here is a brief
overview of what forecasters are currently expecting:
“It will remain
quiet through Wednesday as surface high pressure remains in place,”
according to the forecast discussion. “An intense storm system will start
to impact western and north central New York with a wintry mix Thursday, changing
over to rain Thursday night with strong localized downslope winds. This
will be followed by rapid cooling Friday that will quickly change
precipitation over to all snow with increasingly widespread stronger winds
developing. Very strong winds expected to continue Friday night and
Saturday with wind-driven heavy lake effect snows developing. Heavy lake
snows will last through at least Christmas Day.”
THURSDAY NIGHT:
A half inch of
rain is expected for our region, along with temperatures that will actually rise through the night after
early evening minimums.
High winds expected, especially north-northeast of the Tug Hill plateau and
funneled down the Black River valley. Sustained winds of 40 to 50 MPH
expected, with gusts to 65 MPH. Precipitation may start out as snow before
temperatures rise through the overnight.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT:
The rapidly
intensifying low is forecast to pass just to our west. This will support a
significant increase in winds to 40
to 50 mph over a
more widespread area of the region. As the system lifts past our region the strong
winds will open the door for MUCH colder air to pour across the forecast
area. This will result in a RAPID change over of the rain to snow, leading
to a moderately heavy burst of snow late Friday afternoon into Friday
night. This synoptic snow is forecast to impact the entire region (unlike
the narrow bands experienced with lake effect snow). A secondary cold front
is forecast to move through Friday night, with synoptic snow winding down
and winds remaining strong.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
A “prolonged, paralyzing,
heavy lake effect snow event” is expected to set up following the passage
of the secondary cold front. Currently, it looks like the heaviest lake
effect snow will start over the northern portion of Lewis County on
Saturday, before settling a little more to the central portion of the
county Saturday night through Christmas Day. We’ll have more information on
where the heaviest lake snows are expected to set up and what is expected
in terms of accumulation as the warnings come in over the next day or two. Cold
temperatures are expected for Saturday and Sunday, with highs forecast in
the teens, with wind chills below zero.
Stay tuned for
the latest updates as more information becomes available from the National
Weather Service.
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